April 3 Update

Yesterday, we deployed RDD-1 and 2 north of Memphis, Tennessee. Most storms stopped producing tornadoes prior to crossing the river, but we still got a nice show of lightning.

Here’s a 5 minute clip from #2 that you can seek through and see some nice lightning with the approaching storm.

SPC Risk Level Today: 3 (Enhanced)

SPC Map - Today

Today’s severe weather forecast  has me keeping a close eye on the ArkLaTex region up through the Mid-South and into middle Tennessee. We could see some pretty intense storms along a stalled front running from the southern Plains to Tennessee. Thinking very large hail and even a few strong tornadoes.

By this afternoon and evening, the front’s not moving much, and with warm, moist air feeding in, we could see more storms going up—some potentially with large hail and tornadoes if they stay rooted in that warm air south of the boundary. There’s still some uncertainty about whether these storms will remain surface-based or lift slightly north of the front, but the setup’s got the ingredients for trouble either way. If they move over/north of the front, they'll likely lose most of their tornado threat. 

Below, I’ve drawn in blue roughly where the front should sit this afternoon. This map in RadarOmega depicts surface temperatures. The darker, warmer colors (reds) indicate warm or hot air, while the milder, cooler colors (light yellow/blue) indicate cooler temperatures. The front is just the boundary between the two. It’s a pretty diffuse one, too.

Now, let’s see what the HRRR model says for this afternoon…

HRRR 1PM C

HRRR 4PM C

Looks like a mess. Storms seem to intensify around 1PM central across the I-30 region of Arkansas. Hard to pick out a target. Current thinking is maybe that Pine Bluff to NW Mississippi area (??).

The Plan

Because we’re going to be in this general area for the next 2 days after today, we’re going to deploy 1 or 2 Rapid Deployment Devices in spots that have good visibility and let them stream/monitor all day. Figuring that this is the right idea in this area as visibility is so poor due to trees.

Tomorrow

SPC Map - Tomorrow

The level 3/enhanced risk is in a tough area to chase. NW Arkansas is very mountainous and one of extremely few places in the CONUS where we just don’t go unless there’s a giant tornado already in progress. Because of that, it may be advisable to take a secondary target. Maybe Texas? Southern Illinois? Just stay in Little Rock or Texarkana region? Not sure yet.

Strong tornadoes are possible in the risk area tomorrow, regardless.

Saturday + Sunday

Won’t go into detail on these two days until tomorrow, but here’s the current risk maps.

SPC Map - Saturday

SPC Map - Sunday