April 1 Deployment Update
There’s a level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms today, mainly in Kansas and Oklahoma. Expecting a few storms to form later this evening and pose a big hail and even a tornado risk, but it’s still a little questionable. We’re also looking at potentially significant severe weather over the next week!
SPC risk map for today
The enhanced risk (orange) stretches from near Lawton, Oklahoma to near Kansas City. The SPC says strong tornadoes and hail up to 3 inches are possible in the outlook area, but the big question is whether or not storms will form and be actually present to produce these tornadoes and giant hail. Can’t have a tornado without a storm. There’s less confidence in storms forming the farther south you go on the map. North of I-40 (OKC area) has a greater likelihood, while south may have less chance of storms.
Current thinking is that Project WeatherEye should mobilize north of Oklahoma City, possibly up toward Wichita, Kansas. We believe that the greatest target zone for today may end up being I-35 around the Oklahoma / Kansas border. We have to be very cautious of our deployments, if at all, however, because there is a significant drive time to get to tomorrow’s severe risk area. Any deployment means added time to retrieve the devices, and we may not have the time even if we wanted to.
Take a look at the significant tornado parameter (STP). STP is a composite index map available from the HRRR model in the RadarOmega app. It is a blend of many input variables to create a simple output likelihood of a strong tornado in an area. Taking a look below, we can see a heightened STP value in our target zone, but remember, without a storm actually existing in that environment, it’s all for nothing.
HRRR STP in RadarOmega
The HRRR model does show one storm cell forming right in the middle of the STP around 6PM central. It’s a little more south than expected. Take this very lightly: I believe the HRRR and other models are under-doing the amount of convection. It’s been noted in many past years that these March/April early-season storm set ups are often not very well depicted by the HRRR, or even NAM3k for that matter.
HRRR composite reflectivity in RadarOmega
Here’s some good news:
Two days ago we had our first ‘real world’ deployment with a few RDD units. We placed one of them in front of two severe warned storms in Rector, Arkansas and live streamed it straight to the RadarOmega app. Here’s about 2 hours worth of video condensed into 90 seconds.
Tomorrow
SPC risk map for tomorrow
There’s a huge level 3/5 enhanced risk for tomorrow! Expect some sort of deployment attempt on this one, also.
Current target zone is farther south into the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley where there’s much more confidence in big hail and strong tornadoes. Daytime surface heating from mostly clear skies and sun will support storm development in the afternoon and evening. There’s strong wind shear here, which will influence the storms to rotate, potentially leading to tornadoes!
Remember: The entire outlook area could see tornadoes, potentially!
Thursday
SPC risk area for Thursday
Friday
SPC risk area for Friday
Saturday
SPC risk area for Saturday
